Fraser Valley Home Price Forecast 2026 to 2027: What First-Time Buyers Should Know

The newest published forecast for the Fraser Valley expects the average home price to fall 4.4% in 2026 and rise 1.3% in 2027. First-time buyers ask us what that means for them, and the honest answer starts with who made the forecast, what it measures, and how often forecasts like it have changed.

This guide puts the forecasts from the BC Real Estate Association, CMHC and TD Economics side by side. It also checks past forecasts against what happened. If your question is whether to buy this year at all, our guide Is now a good time to buy in the Fraser Valley? covers that. This one is about what the forecasts say comes next and how much weight to give them.

What do the published forecasts say for 2026 and 2027?

A price forecast is an estimate, made by economists, of where prices will be in a future period. The three groups below publish their forecasts and update them during the year. All of them use MLS® sales data, the records of homes sold through the boards' listing systems.

Forecaster and date published	Area covered	What it measures	2026 forecast	2027 forecast
BCREA, August 20, 2026	Fraser Valley board area	Average MLS® price, all home types	$967,000, down 4.4%	$980,000, up 1.3%
BCREA, August 20, 2026	Chilliwack board area	Average MLS® price, all home types	$764,000, down 0.1%	$770,000, up 0.8%
BCREA, August 20, 2026	Greater Vancouver board area, which includes Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows	Average MLS® price, all home types	$1,210,000, down 2.4%	$1,250,000, up 3.3%
BCREA, August 20, 2026	All of BC	Average MLS® price, all home types	$941,800, down 1.2%	$967,400, up 2.7%
CMHC, July 22, 2026	Vancouver metropolitan area	Average MLS® price, main scenario	$1,160,000, down 2.5%	$1,194,000, up 2.9%
TD Economics, September 29, 2026	All of BC	Average home price	down 1.3%	up 0.9%

Sources: BCREA 2026 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update, CMHC Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook, TD Economics Provincial Resale Market Outlook. CMHC's percentages are our calculation from its 2025 figure of $1,189,251 and its forecast dollar figures. Board areas for Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows are from the GVR September 2026 package.

Of the three, only BCREA publishes a number for the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board area, which covers Surrey, Langley, Abbotsford, Mission, White Rock and North Delta according to the board's own release. CMHC's BC forecasts cover two areas: Vancouver and Victoria. TD forecasts the province as a whole. A BC-wide number mixes the Fraser Valley with Victoria, the Okanagan and the North, so we would not use TD's figure as a Fraser Valley figure.

Read BCREA's Fraser Valley numbers in dollars and they say this: the 2027 forecast of $980,000 is still $31,813 below the 2025 average of $1,011,813. BCREA expects a small rise next year, after a larger fall this year.

BCREA's April 2026 edition, the latest edition with a breakdown by home type that we could read in full, split the Fraser Valley forecast like this:

Fraser Valley home type	2025 average	2026 forecast	2027 forecast
Apartment (condo)	$539,114	$511,000, down 5.2%	$517,000, up 1.2%
Attached homes	$839,143	$821,000, down 2.2%	$829,000, up 1.0%
Detached	$1,556,781	$1,505,200, down 3.3%	$1,530,000, up 1.6%

Source: BCREA Housing Forecast, April 2026, Lower Mainland table. The August update kept the same Fraser Valley totals and did not include a breakdown by type.

Why do the forecasts give different numbers?

Three things explain most of the gaps: the area, the measure and the date.

The area matters because Fraser Valley prices and Vancouver prices move at different speeds. CMHC's Vancouver forecast draws on data from both the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley boards, and its text covers places from the city of Vancouver to Coquitlam to the condo markets south of the Fraser River. BCREA's BC total includes every region of the province. Neither number tells you what a Langley townhouse will do.

The measure matters even more. An average price is the total value of homes sold divided by the number of homes sold. If more detached homes sell in a month, the average goes up, even if no single home gained value. A benchmark price is the board's estimate of what a typical home with set features would sell for, so a change in the mix of sales moves it less. The September 2026 Fraser Valley numbers show how far apart the two can be. According to the FVREB September 2026 package, the average price for all home types was $954,833, down 3.2% from a year earlier. The composite benchmark, which combines all home types, was $861,300, down 7.2%. Same board, same month, and the two measures differ by four percentage points. Every forecast in our table uses an average price, so compare it with average prices, and remember that a benchmark may show a larger drop.

The date matters because each forecast uses the data available when it was written. CMHC's summer update uses information up to June 23, 2026. BCREA's update came out August 20. TD's came out September 29 and names a rise in bond yields, which it says underpin fixed mortgage rates, as the reason it lowered its forecast. A forecast written in June cannot react to what happened in August.

CMHC also shows that a single forecast number can hide a wide range. In its February 2026 Housing Market Outlook, it gave the Vancouver area average price for 2026 as a range from $1,111,000 to $1,348,000. That range is $237,000 wide. In the same report, CMHC wrote that newer condos south of the Fraser River may need further price cuts before sales improve. That comment applies to many of the Surrey and Langley condos our first-time buyers look at.

How close have past forecasts come to what happened?

We compared earlier BCREA forecasts for the Fraser Valley with BCREA's own later figures.

Forecast made	For year	Forecast average price	Result or latest forecast	Gap
November 2024	2025	$1,056,800, up 1.5%	$1,011,813, down 2.4% (result)	$44,987 lower
January 2026	2026	$1,025,500, up 1.2%	$967,000, down 4.4% (August 2026 forecast)	$58,500 lower
January 2026	2027	$1,049,300, up 2.3%	$980,000, up 1.3% (August 2026 forecast)	$69,300 lower

Sources: BCREA Housing Forecast, November 2024 (archived copy), BCREA 2026 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update, BCREA 2026 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update. The 2025 result is the figure in BCREA's August 2026 table. Gaps are our calculation.

The November 2024 forecast expected a rise for 2025, and prices fell. The miss on sales was larger: BCREA expected 16,000 Fraser Valley sales in 2025, and the August 2026 table shows 11,510. That is 28.1% fewer than forecast.

Other forecasters have changed their numbers too. TD's June 19, 2026 provincial forecast expected BC home prices to rise 2.6% in 2027. Its September 29 outlook lowered that to 0.9%. CMHC's February report expected Vancouver prices to hold steady in 2026, with a possible rise. Its July update says prices across Canada are expected to decline through 2026 and then grow at a low rate.

Forecasters publish updates because the economy keeps changing, and BCREA, CMHC and TD all list the risks to their own numbers. The lesson for a buyer is simpler. A forecast for the next 12 to 15 months can be off by 3.9 percentage points, as BCREA's 2025 Fraser Valley forecast was, and it can change direction between editions. A forecast tells you which way experts see prices moving based on today's information. A plan that only works if the forecast is exactly right is a weak plan.

Where is the Fraser Valley market right now?

The forecasts start from the board data, so it helps to know where that data sits today. In September 2026, FVREB recorded 922 sales and 9,763 active listings, according to its September package. Active listings were 31% above the 10-year average for September. The sales-to-active listings ratio, which is sales in the month divided by homes for sale at month end, was 9%. Under 12% is a buyer's market by the board's measure.

The composite benchmark of $861,300 is down 15.7% over three years and up 26.9% over ten years. By type, the September benchmarks were $461,800 for a condo (down 9.3% in 12 months), $745,300 for a townhouse (down 6.2%) and $1,300,000 for a detached home (down 8.8%). Our September 2026 market update has the full city by city numbers, and the August 2026 update shows the month before.

Sales so far this year help us check the forecast. FVREB recorded 8,742 sales from January to September, 5.5% fewer than in the same months of 2025. BCREA's forecast of 11,000 sales for 2026 would need 2,258 more sales from October to December, by our calculation.

Outside the FVREB area, the numbers differ. In Chilliwack, the August 2026 release shows a composite benchmark of $704,600, down 5.2% in 12 months, and an average price so far this year of $766,774, up 0.2%. That average is $2,774 above BCREA's Chilliwack forecast of $764,000 for the full year, while the benchmark has fallen 5.2%. In Maple Ridge, the GVR September 2026 package shows a composite benchmark of $882,600, down 7.0%, and Pitt Meadows at $848,800, down 3.6%.

What do the forecasts assume about mortgage rates?

The Bank of Canada sets a policy rate, the interest rate for overnight loans between banks. Variable mortgage rates move with it. It has been 2.25% at all six announcements in 2026: January 28, March 18, April 29, June 10, July 15 and September 2. The next two are October 28 and December 9.

TD's September outlook assumes the Bank stays on hold through 2027. TD still lowered its price forecast because of bond yields. TD now expects those yields, and so fixed mortgage rates, to stay higher through next year than it expected in June. CMHC's summer update expects the average posted five-year fixed rate, the rate lenders advertise, to rise from 5.2% in 2026 to 5.4% in 2027.

BCREA's April 2026 forecast points to a second driver: population. It expects population growth to return to more normal levels in 2027, after federal cuts to the number of temporary residents, and it expects that to support housing demand.

For a buyer, the rate assumption matters as much as the price forecast. CMHC lists mortgage rates rising more and earlier than expected as one of the risks to its BC forecast. A higher rate would also raise your own payment at your first renewal. Our guides on the mortgage stress test and on fixed versus variable mortgages explain how a rate change flows into what you qualify for and what you pay.

What if prices fall another 5% or 10% after you buy?

A forecast gives one number. We find it more useful to ask buyers to test a few outcomes against their own budget. Here is an example with made-up figures, chosen to be close to the September 2026 Fraser Valley condo benchmark.

Assumptions: a $460,000 condo, a 5% down payment of $23,000, and a starting mortgage of $437,000. We leave out mortgage insurance, closing costs and the small amount of the mortgage you pay off in the first year, to keep the math clear.

Price change in the next year	Estimated value	Value compared with the starting mortgage
Up 1.3% (the BCREA 2027 Fraser Valley rate)	$465,980	$28,980 above
No change	$460,000	$23,000 above
Down 5%	$437,000	Equal
Down 10%	$414,000	$23,000 below

Illustrative example using our own calculations. The figures describe a made-up condo.

A 5% fall would bring the estimated value down to the size of the mortgage. Your payment stays the same either way. At an assumed rate of 4.5% over 25 years, the payment on $437,000 is $2,418.68 a month, whatever happens to the home's value. The drop turns into money lost only if you sell while the value is down. It can also limit your options if you need to refinance during that time.

Now the other side. If you wait a year and prices fall 5%, the same condo costs $23,000 less. If prices rise 1.3% instead, it costs $5,980 more. Today's forecasts cannot tell you which of these will happen. Add a year of rent and any change in your savings or income to that comparison before you decide.

In our experience, the buyers who regret a purchase in a falling market are usually the ones who had to sell within two or three years, or who stretched the monthly payment so far that a rate change at renewal hurt them. You can plan for both of those risks before you buy.

How should a first-time buyer use a forecast?

We suggest using forecasts for three jobs and not asking them to do more.

First, use them to understand direction. Every forecast in our table expects a fall or a flat result for 2026 and a small rise in 2027. None of them expects a fast recovery. That supports taking your time, comparing several homes and offering from sold prices. Our guide on how much below asking to offer shows how to set a price from sold records in today's market.

Second, use the size of past errors as a check on your own plan. BCREA's 2025 Fraser Valley forecast missed by $44,987, so ask what a $45,000 lower value would mean for your plans. If the answer is "nothing, because we plan to stay eight years", the forecast matters less to you than to someone who may move for work in two years.

Third, use forecasts to check claims made by people selling to you. If a seller, a builder or anyone else says prices are about to rise, ask which forecast they mean, what area it covers and when it was published. A BC-wide number or a Vancouver number is a weak reason to pay more for a home in Abbotsford.

Whether the price of a specific home is fair, whether its strata is healthy and whether the monthly cost fits your life are questions for the sold prices of similar homes, the strata documents and your own budget. Our guide to how much house you can afford in the Fraser Valley and a pre-approval with a real rate hold will tell you more about your next step than any forecast will.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Fraser Valley home prices go down in 2027?

The latest forecast from the BC Real Estate Association, published August 20, 2026, expects the Fraser Valley average price to rise 1.3% in 2027, to $980,000, after a 4.4% fall in 2026. That is a forecast. BCREA changed its 2026 Fraser Valley call from a 1.2% rise in January to a 4.4% fall in April.

What is the BCREA forecast for the Fraser Valley in 2026?

BCREA's third-quarter update, released August 20, 2026, forecasts a Fraser Valley average MLS® price of $967,000 for 2026, down 4.4% from $1,011,813 in 2025. It forecasts 11,000 sales in 2026, down 4.4%, and 12,500 sales in 2027, up 13.6%.

Does CMHC publish a Fraser Valley housing forecast?

CMHC publishes forecasts for Canada and for selected metropolitan areas. In BC those are Vancouver and Victoria. Its July 22, 2026 update expects the Vancouver area average price to be $1,160,000 in 2026 and $1,194,000 in 2027. CMHC does not publish separate forecasts for Abbotsford, Mission or Chilliwack.

What is the difference between the average price and the benchmark price?

The average price is the total value of homes sold in a period divided by the number of sales, so it moves when more large or small homes sell. The benchmark price is the board's estimate for a typical home with set features. In September 2026 the Fraser Valley average fell 3.2% over 12 months while the composite benchmark fell 7.2%.

How accurate are BC housing price forecasts?

BCREA's forecast for 2025 missed by 3.9 percentage points. In November 2024 BCREA forecast that the Fraser Valley average price would rise 1.5% in 2025. BCREA's own table now shows a 2.4% fall for that year. Forecasts are updated several times a year, and each update can change the direction of the call.

Should I wait for prices to drop before buying my first home?

Waiting makes sense if your budget, savings or job are not ready yet. If they are ready, no published forecast tells you when prices will be lowest. Compare what you would save if prices fell another 5% with what you would pay in rent while you wait, and decide from your own numbers.

What does a 1.3% price rise in 2027 mean in dollars?

On a $460,000 condo, a 1.3% rise is $5,980. On a $750,000 townhouse it is $9,750. These are our illustrative numbers using the BCREA Fraser Valley forecast rate. The forecast is for the average of all sales, so one home can do better or worse than that.

Are interest rates expected to go down in 2027?

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% at all six announcements in 2026 up to September. TD Economics assumes in its September 29, 2026 outlook that the Bank stays on hold through 2027. CMHC expects the average posted five-year fixed rate to rise from 5.2% in 2026 to 5.4% in 2027.

Do Chilliwack and Maple Ridge have their own forecasts?

BCREA forecasts Chilliwack separately: an average price of $764,000 in 2026, down 0.1%, and $770,000 in 2027, up 0.8%. Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows fall under the Greater Vancouver board, where BCREA forecasts a 2.4% fall in 2026 and a 3.3% rise in 2027.

Will condo prices in the Fraser Valley keep falling?

BCREA's April 2026 forecast expected the Fraser Valley apartment average price to fall 5.2% in 2026, to $511,000, and rise 1.2% in 2027, to $517,000. CMHC wrote in February 2026 that newer condos south of the Fraser River may need further price cuts before sales improve.

What happens if I buy and prices fall another 10%?

Your home's estimated value drops, but your mortgage and payment stay the same. With 5% down on a $460,000 condo, a 10% fall would put the value $23,000 below the starting mortgage. That matters most if you have to sell or refinance soon. If you can keep living in the home, you can wait for prices to recover.

Sources

• BCREA 2026 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update, news release and forecast table (released August 20, 2026)
• BCREA Housing Forecast, April 2026
• BCREA 2026 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update (January 2026)
• BCREA Housing Forecast, November 2024, archived copy
• CMHC, Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook (July 22, 2026)
• CMHC, Housing Market Outlook 2026 (February 10, 2026)
• TD Economics, Provincial Resale Market Outlook (September 29, 2026)
• TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast, June 2026 (June 19, 2026)
• Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, September 2026 Statistics Package (released October 5, 2026)
• Greater Vancouver REALTORS®, September 2026 Stats Package (released October 2, 2026)
• Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board, August 2026 statistics, via the Canadian Real Estate Association
• Bank of Canada, Policy interest rate

Data checked October 9, 2026. Forecasts are estimates made by the organizations named, and they change with each edition. FRIVE does not publish its own price forecast. This is general information only. Talk to a mortgage professional, and where needed a lawyer or accountant, about your own situation before you decide.

This representation is based in whole or in part on data generated by the Chilliwack & District Real Estate Board, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board or Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver which assume no responsibility for its accuracy.

Related FRIVE guides

• Is now a good time to buy in the Fraser Valley?, how to weigh buying now against waiting
• September 2026 Fraser Valley market update, the full board numbers for the month
• How much below asking should you offer?, setting an offer from sold prices
• Fixed vs variable mortgage in BC, how rate changes reach your payment
• BC Assessment vs market value, why one more number can mislead a buyer

Next Steps: Work with FRIVE

The buyers we see do best in a market like this one use forecasts to set their expectations and use their own budget to set their price. When you are ready, we can show you the sold prices, the board numbers and the latest forecasts for the city and home type you are looking at, and talk through what a further price drop would mean for your plan.

If that would help, start a conversation with the FRIVE team. You can also browse condos for sale in Surrey, townhomes for sale in Langley or the first-time buyer guides. There is no pressure to buy before you are ready.